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]]>What the outcome yields for Bangladesh?
Md. Mahfujur Rahman
Thirty-seven industrialized countries had been accused of releasing Greenhouse gases in Kyoto Protocol under United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Signatory members to the UNFCCC have been meeting annually in Conference of the Parties (COP) to assess progress in dealing with climate change since 1994. This year Climate leaders from all over the world gathered at Doha from 26 November to 8 December 2012 to find ‘what to dos’ for reversing the grim effect of global anthropogenic climate change. However, outcomes are a mixture of both success and failure with depiction of slow pace in progress.Climate change and Bangladesh
Being a high density and low per capita resource country, Bangladesh is very vulnerable to climate change impacts. According to recent research outcomes, it is in second position with respect to climate change vulnerability after Haiti. This floodplain and deltaic country having tropical climate has been a gross victim of flood, cyclone, drought and salinity ingress due to increased temperature, changing pattern of rainfall and variance of water flow in major rivers much of which relate to climate change effect.
The changes in climatic factors are affecting life and livelihood of millions of people in Bangladesh. Due to change in seasonal distribution of rainfall early and late floods are commencing in the haor areas more frequently. Such haor floods destroyed major crops of the area in 2010. Scarcity of potable water and reduced agricultural production are major threats in coastal districts due to rising sea level and salinity ingress. People in many areas of Chittagong and Khulna are compelled to store rain water in monsoon for drinking purpose all the year round. Drought in Rajshahi district tremendously affected mango production in 2011.
Rising flood water in the flood plains of Jamuna, Padma and Meghna river and salinity in the coastal districts such as Patuakhali, Jhalakathi are major threats to rice cultivation. Not only this the number and severity of tropical cyclones hitting the coast of Bangladesh have increased also. When a cyclone occurs, it floods paddy fields with sea water, damage home, standing crop and irrigation systems and destroy seed supplies. A huge number of people are yet homeless due to cyclone Sidr and Aila. Death from cold shock and heat stroke has also increased in Bangladesh due to unusual severity of the seasons.
Coping with global warming
Overall, the aggregated emission-reduction pledges of all Parties fall far short of what is needed to get the world on track for limiting global warming to 2 and 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
The Climate Action Tracker added up the international reduction target and pledges of individual countries, and has estimated that global emissions in 2020 would total 54 billion tonnes CO2/year in 2020. In spite of having minimal contribution to GHGs emission poor and developing countries are the worst victim of climate change. Climate justice says that those who are responsible for the harmful change should compensate. Developing countries like Bangladesh need long-term and guaranteed finance, efficient technology transfer and capacity building for adaptation. For that immediate release of fast track fund, replenishing other existing funds and keeping pledge and commitment are essential. The procedure for LDCs to access adaptation funds right now is cumbersome. Binding commitments from Annex-1 parties to reduce emissions are must for global emission reduction. Reductions from large emitter developing countries are also necessary in regime where India and China are emerging as big emitters.
Outcomes of COP 18
Outcome of COP 18 is a mixture of success and failure. The conference decided to continue the Kyoto Protocol to a second commitment period and articulated the need of a new agenda, ‘loss and damage’. These are successes while the conference has quite some failures as well.
Continuation of Kyoto Protocol: One of the key successes of COP 18 is that it ensured the continuity of Kyoto Protocol up to 2020 that would mean uninterrupted support of developed countries to emission reduction in developing countries through CDM projects. The Kyoto Protocol was adopted in 1997 and legally bonded developed countries to emission reduction targets. The protocol’s first commitment period was 2008-2012. Now it has been binding for the Annex-1 countries to reduce GHGs emission upto 25-40% below the emission base of 1990 by 2020. Countries taking on further commitments have agreed to review their emission reduction commitments at the latest by 2014. However, Australia, the EU, Japan, Lichtenstein, Monaco and Switzerland have declared that they will not carry over any surplus emissions trading credits (assigned amounts) into the second commitment period.
Fast start finance and long term finance: Towards the end of the most hilarious annual conference on climate change in the world, Doha’s COP 18, finance is still a big issue to handle. Numbers are not yet on the table, except one from UK pledging £ 2.9 billion by 2015. EU did not give any number for their unfinished budget. Without giving any pledge many developed countries assured saying ‘we will continue funding’.
Green climate fund: In Doha countries pledged or provided a little more than $10 million to the Green Climate Fund (GCF) to meet its administrative costs as its Board works to further operationalise the fund in 2013. Countries also agreed to develop the rules of engagement between the COP and the GCF board in order to allow the COP guide the fund’s strategic direction without interfering in its day-to-day operations. The Standing Committee on Finance, acting on behalf of the COP, will work with the GCF Board to develop these rules through 2013, with the goal of agreeing on them by COP 19.
Adaptation for vulnerable countries: COP 18 launched a new set of adaptation planning efforts by approving a set of technical guidelines to help Parties develop National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) as long-term, flexible, and iterative planning processes to help build adaptive capacity and respond to climate change. Least Developed Countries’ Fund (LDCF) would be utilised to meet the full cost of preparing the NAPs for LDCs. The conference also approved the three-year work plan of the Adaptation Committee, which represents an important new effort to promote coherence among the many adaptation negotiation streams under the Convention.
Measurement, Reporting, and Verification (MRV): Though COP 18 was scheduled to adopt a cost-effective verification regime for developing countries, they left Doha with divergent views on how this process — known as international consultation and analysis (ICA) — should be conducted. However, on the effective use of existing institutions like the Consultative Group of Experts (CGE), a technical assistance body was created to help developing countries meet their reporting requirements.
Mitigation by developing countries: Developing countries agreed to a two-year work programme on mitigation, with opportunities for international organizations to shape relevant guidance that will help these countries design and implement their nationally appropriate mitigation actions (NAMAs). But how the mitigation activities would be financed was not assured.
Loss and damage of Asian countries: Though developed country Parties had resisted any concrete decision on this issue because of challenges associated with attributing specific losses and damages directly to climate change, but under persistent pressure from least developed countries (LDCs) and island states, the Parties agreed to establish by COP 19 “institutional arrangements, such as an international mechanism” that would help vulnerable, developing countries deal with the irrecoverable losses and damages from climate change. But it is unclear that what “institutional arrangements” would mean.
Forests / REDD: For many, this was a disappointing COP for REDD+. Parties had two major tasks during the negotiations on reduced emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+): to address technical issues under SBSTA, and to clarify how finance would be made available to countries taking REDD+ actions. Had these tasks been completed, many believe that REDD+ architecture would be largely finished. Unfortunately, in both cases the outcome was to defer decisions for later.
Concluding remarks
Rural communities are at high risk of natural hazards like flood, cyclone and salinity ingress in coastal region due to climatic impacts. Though government’s capacity is well proven in disaster management, it may not perform its duty as efficiently in a changing climate regime. Though there are some glimpses of hope, the total scenario is dismaying. Continuation of KP, pledges for green climate fund and formal recognition on ‘loss and damage’ are some examples of successes. However, new pledges, pace of fund release and amount from the developed countries are not sufficient for adaptation of developing countries. There is not any direct funding for most vulnerable countries like Bangladesh. Even the criteria of being eligible for receiving financing adaptation projects from Adaptation Fund are too strict to access. Responses of the developed countries are slow which is ultimately slowing down the process.
The writer is an Impact and Policy Officer at Islamic Relief, Bangladesh.
Article originally published on The Daily Star
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]]>Bangladesh must improve its financial management to obtain a significant share of funds available globally to combat climate change impacts and ensure food security, said an eminent climatologist yesterday.
“The developed countries are ready to release billions of dollars to the affected countries. It is not impossible for Bangladesh to collect $2 to 3 billion, as the country is in the forefront of the fight against the climate change impacts,” said Prof Ainun Nishat, a senior adviser to International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources.
“But I am afraid Bangladesh may not get hold of the funds due to its poor financial management. The country must notice the direction the world is moving towards,” he said.
Prof Nishat was speaking at a discussion on “Climate change, natural disaster, environmental management and food security” on the concluding day of a two-day international symposium styled “Science for Society” at Bangladesh Agriculture Research Council in the capital.
Supported by Japan Embassy here, Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS) Alumni Association organised the event to mark the 40th anniversary of Japan-Bangladesh diplomatic relations. About 300 researchers from the two countries took part in the symposium.
Prof Nishat, also the vice-chancellor of Brac University, said food security in Bangladesh would come under a serious threat if the sea level rises to a dangerous point. The ecosystem and biodiversity will undergo major changes, as they will not be able to acclimatise.
“We have had good yield in the last three years due to congenial weather. But if we are forced to import even a small volume of food grains, it will be a major concern for us.”
Around six to seven crore people of the country would be homeless due to the sea level rise, he said, adding, “Apart from food security, there will be massive outbound migration.”
According to him, the agriculture and the health ministries have progressed a lot in tackling the climate change “but many other ministries have not realised their roles”.
He said climate change and climate variability are real. Every country is initiating something about the issue, but a stable situation is not likely to be achieved soon. “The whole of the world urgently needs to focus on what to do about it.”
The environmentalist said even if carbon emission is completely stopped now, it would take at least 30 years for the world to fix the damage. “It means the danger will be graver in the coming days.”
Forestation has to be introduced to combat carbon dioxide, he said, adding that the world’s temperature has increased by 0.76 degree Celsius since 1850, whereas the rise in Bangladesh is 1.1 degrees Celsius.
Bangladesh is one of the lowest greenhouse gas producers, with per capita annual emission of 0.2 tonnes.
Nishat, former professor of Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (Buet), said the country must accelerate its adaptation process to offset the damages caused by climate change impacts.
Citing their study findings, Mahin Al Nahian, a researcher of Institute of Water and Food Management (IWFM) of Buet, said migration was found to be a major adaptation strategy after any disaster, especially loss of land and livelihood. Women are the worse victim of seasonal migration.
He said women became more vulnerable in post Aila scenario with increased burden of water collection and food management.
SM Imamul Huq, vice-president of Bangladesh Academy of Sciences, who co-chaired the session, said the nation has to consume less and conserve more to cut the impact of climate change.
Prof Lutful Hassan, of Department of Genetics and Plant Breeding at Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh, said temperature rise would seriously harm soil fertility and thus agricultural production.
Mahmud Hasan Tuhin, a research assistant of IWFM, Abul Hossain Molla, a researcher of Department of Bioenvironmental Science at Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman Agricultural University in Gazipur, and SM Shahinul Islam of Institute of Biological Sciences at Rajshahi University, among others, also spoke at yesterday’s symposium.
-With The Daily Star input
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]]>Legal response to loss and damage
Hafijul Islam Khan
The adverse impacts of climate change have continued to devastate the lives and livelihoods of millions of people and inflict large economic losses. According to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, there has been a global increase in weather related disasters between 1980 and 2003. The report estimated that during that period the economic loss due to damage caused by natural disasters is one trillion USD in total. Moreover, the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs has estimated that in 2008 over 20 million people were displaced by sudden onset of climate-related disasters. It also reported that climate change is already causing 300,000 deaths per year throughout the world and seriously impacting the lives of 325 million people [September 2009].Climate change impacts and vulnerability, particularly vis-à-vis current extreme weather events, bring up the serious legal question of liability for the loss and damage associated with climate change. Causal liability shifts the burden to the industrialised countries to take entire responsibility in response to loss and damage caused, based on proportional contribution to the cause of climate change. In the context of climate science, relative contributions of different states to climate change can be estimated based on the cumulative contribution and, as such, each state should be liable proportionally. Although one can convincingly establish substantive arguments for climate induced loss and damage based on the rules of customary international law, there are often no certain procedural means to pursue this legitimate claim further.
Therefore, in response to climate induced loss and damage, an immediate and contemporary policy framework is needed under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change [UNFCCC]. Accepting this reality, while international climate change regime sets a structure for adaptation, the issue of loss and damage is addressed within framework that. In 2007, under the Bali Action Plan, the UNFCCC Parties agreed to consider “disaster reduction strategies and means to address loss and damage associated with climate change impacts in developing countries that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change ” as part of enhanced action on adaptation.
Later, in 2010, the Cancun Agreements described loss and damage as “including impacts related to extreme weather events and slow onset events” such as “sea level rise, increasing temperatures, ocean acidification, glacial retreat and related impacts, salinisation, land and forest degradation, loss of biodiversity and desertification”. Under the Cancun Agreements, the Conference of the Parties (COP) also established a work programme to consider approaches to address loss and damage and mandated the Subsidiary Body for Implementation (SBI) to agree on relevant activities. Furthermore, at COP-17 in Durban, the Parties requested the SBI to continue this work and make recommendations to decide at the COP 18.
The Durban decision on loss and damage aims at additional fact finding through research, expert meetings and stakeholder consultations to take into account at COP 18. Parties included in Annex II and other developed country parties are requested to provide financial and technical support for the implementation of the activities of the work programme agreed in Durban. In terms of governance mechanism, it was decided to explore a range of possible approaches and potential mechanisms, including an international mechanism, to address loss and damage.
However, during the negotiations many developed country Parties made it clear that they did not want to work towards the establishment of such a mechanism and hence suggestion for international mechanism was incorporated in the preambular text. They are also reluctant to provide financial support in accordance with compensation-based approaches.
Policy framework to address loss and damage associated with climate change requires a robust, transparent and credible institutional mechanism with anticipatory approaches under adaptation framework to avoid and to reduce loss and damage along with reactionary approaches beyond adaptation framework including compensation schemes. To ensure the availability of predictable and adequate fundings, a robust link to the emerging climate finance system will be crucial to meet the financial need to address loss and damage.
The Durban decision does not make loss and damage a priority issue for future climate negotiations leading to a new global climate agreement. However, the inclusion of “international mechanism” in Durban decision on loss and damage marks an important window of opportunity for further development of institutional mechanisms. Thus, we need to work further towards the establishment of a mechanism for loss and damage that provides immediate and adequate legal protection for vulnerable communities.
(Article originally published on The Daily Star)
The writer is an environmental lawyer.
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]]>A marathon UN climate conference yesterday approved a roadmap towards an accord that for the first time will bring all major greenhouse-gas emitters under a single legal roof.
The European Union will place its current emission-cutting pledges inside the legally-binding Kyoto Protocol, a key demand of developing countries.
Talks on a new legal deal covering all countries will begin next year and end by 2015, coming into effect by 2020.The agreement on the roadmap was reached after nearly 14 days of talks under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
Critics said the action plan was not aggressive enough to slow the pace of global warming.
The forum also launched a “Green Climate Fund” to help channel up to 100 billion dollars a year in aid to poor, vulnerable countries by 2020, an initiative born under the 2009 Copenhagen Summit.
There has also been significant progress on Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD), adds BBC.
“I believe that what we have achieved in Durban will play a central role in saving tomorrow, today,” declared South African Foreign Minister Maite Nkoana-Mashabane, who chaired the talks.
Approval came after two and a half days of round-the-clock wrangling among 194 nations, reports AFP.
Even by UNFCCC standards, the meeting broke the record for going into overtime.
The talks should have ended on Friday but wrapped up in the dawn light yesterday amid scenes of exhaustion and shredded nerves, with many delegates saying the host government lacked urgency and strategy.
Nevertheless, there was applause in the main conference hall when Maite Nkoana-Mashabane brought down the long-awaited final gavel.
“We came here with plan A, and we have concluded this meeting with plan A to save one planet for the future of our children and our grandchildren to come,” she said.
“We have made history.”
The often-stormy exchanges reflected concerns among many countries over the cost of making energy efficiencies and switching to clean renewable sources at a time of belt-tightening.
UNFCCC chief Christiana Figueres was exultant.
Citing the words of Nelson Mandela, she said on Twitter: “In honour of Mandela: It always seems impossible until it is done. And it is done!
“I think in the end it ended up quite well,” said US chief negotiator Todd Stern.
“The first time you will see developing countries agreeing, essentially, to be bound by a legal agreement.”
The European Union hailed the outcome as a “historic breakthrough”.
“Where the [1997] Kyoto [protocol] divides the world into two categories, we will now get a system that reflects the reality of today’s mutually interdependent world,” Connie Hedegaard, the EU commissioner for climate action, said in the statement.
Greenpeace, however, lamented the deal as a victory for polluters over people.
“The grim news is that the blockers lead by the US have succeeded in inserting a vital get-out clause that could easily prevent the next big climate deal being legally binding. If that loophole is exploited it could be a disaster,” said Greenpeace director Kumi Naidoo.
“Right now the global climate regime amounts to nothing more than a voluntary deal that’s put off for a decade.
In the run-up to the conference, scientists pounded out loud warnings, saying future generations would pay the bill for foot-dragging.
Current measures to tackle carbon emissions are falling far short of the goal of limiting warming to two degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit).
According to research presented by German scientists, the world is on track for a 3.5 C (6.3 F) rise, spelling worsening droughts, floods, storms and rising sea levels for tens of millions of people.
The European Union led the charge in Durban, pushing for the “roadmap” in exchange for renewing its pledges to the Kyoto Protocol, a treaty deemed iconic by developing countries but increasingly dismissed by rich ones as out of date.
Kyoto’s first roster of legally-binding carbon curbs expires at the end of 2012.
The EU will sign up for fresh commitments taking effect from 2013, although this will be little more than symbolic, translating into the UN framework its existing plan for reducing European greenhouse-gas emissions by 20 percent by 2020 over 1990 levels.
New Zealand, Norway and Switzerland and others are joining it, said European diplomats. The duration of the post-2013 commitments will be either five or eight years. Negotiations on this will take place next year.
The EU made the pledge to help assemble a coalition of developing and small island states — together accounting for nearly two-thirds of the world’s nations — that lobbied China, the United States and India to support the quest.
China and India have become huge emitters of carbon over the last half-dozen years but do not have Kyoto constraints as they are developing countries.
The United States, the world’s no 2 source of man-made carbon, also has no legal curbs as it refused in 2001 to ratify Kyoto.
The key to the Durban deal lay in overcoming the opposition of the Big Three by crafting vague text about what the pact will be — essentially reassuring them that the price will not be unaffordable.
The final text said parties would “develop a protocol, another legal instrument or an agreed outcome with legal force”.
That compromise averted the use of “legally binding”, likely to trigger a backlash among the conservative right in the United States during a presidential election year.
“The Durban deal is a solid step in the right direction. It preserves Kyoto for now, but more importantly, lays a path toward a more balanced agreement,” said Elliot Diringer of the Center for Climate and Energy Solutions, a US think tank.
Australia, one of the world’s worst per capita polluters, hailed the deal as a “significant breakthrough.”
Observers say the talks for the 2015 pact will be arduous.
The thorny issues include determining the agreement’s exact legal status and apportioning carbon constraints among rich and poor countries.
LEAST-BAD OPTION
India’s Environment Minister Jayanthi Natarajan, who gave an impassioned speech to the conference denouncing what she said was unfair pressure on Delhi to compromise, said her country had only reluctantly agreed to the accord.
“We’ve had very intense discussions. We were not happy with reopening the text but in the spirit of flexibility and accommodation shown by all, we have shown our flexibility… we agree to adopt it,” she said.
Small island states in the frontline of climate change, said they had gone along with a deal but only because a collapse of the talks was of no help to their vulnerable nations, reports Reuters.
“I would have wanted to get more, but at least we have something to work with. All is not lost yet,” said Selwin Hart, chief negotiator on finance for the coalition of small states.
Tosi Mpanu-Mpanu, head of the Africa Group, added: “It’s a middle ground, we meet mid-way. Of course we are not completely happy about the outcome, it lacks balance, but we believe it is starting to go into the right direction.”
UN reports released in the last month warned delays on a global agreement to cut greenhouse gas emissions will make it harder to keep the average rise to within 2 degrees Celsius over the next century.
-With Agencies/The Daily Star input
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]]>A last moment drama blew a fresh air into the Durban climate conference as the US surprisingly agreed to an EU proposal that says the bloc would sign the second phase of the legally binding Kyoto protocol, provided all major economies sign a legal climate deal by 2015.
But frayed and tired negotiators are yet to reach their goal as India rejected the proposal and China, the world’s biggest emitter of greenhouse gas, has yet to endorse it.
The EU proposal, which it calls a road map to a new climate deal, has been backed by more than 120 countries.
But even if the Kyoto protocol gets a second lease of life, it would deliver very little in terms of cutting greenhouse gas and checking rising temperature as the EU represents only 11 percent of the global greenhouse gas emission. And the EU was anyway committed to reducing carbon emission by 20 percent by 2020.
The surprise US declaration came when Todd Stern, US special envoy for climate change, told a press conference: “The EU has called for a roadmap. We support that.”
The EU wants action from other countries as the Kyoto Protocol accounts for just 15 percent of world emissions as it was never ratified by the US and does not cover major economies such as China and India.
Kyoto protocol, the only legally binding agreement on emission, was signed in 1997 and is to expire in 2012. This is why a second commitment period is so important if the world has to bind itself within the target of keeping the global temperature rise to 2 degree Celsius by the end of this century.
But when the Kyoto was signed, the countries which committed to cutting emission accounted for 70 percent of the greenhouse gas. Since then China and India, which were not obliged to cut emission, have emerged as the biggest and the third biggest polluters. The US never signed the commitment.
As such, even with the EU signing the second commitment of the protocol, that would cover only 11 percent of the global greenhouse gas after Japan, Canada, Russia and Australia have walked out. And environmentalists see it a great defeat in the fight to check global warming that has been causing havoc across the world, more so in the poorer countries.
Chris Huhne, Britain’s minister for energy and climate change, declared the United States was giving ground in the face of a united call from two-thirds of the world’s nations.
“I think the US is reflecting the pressure that’s been brought to bear and is continuing to be brought to bear on many of the other members here who have yet to agree,” he said.
But other big emitters such as Brazil and South Africa have said they are willing to discuss the proposed programme.
The EU road map says negotiations should begin soon on a new global emission cut agreement under which all the major emitters would make commitments by 2015 to cut emissions, starting from 2020.
The US is reluctant to agree to specific dates yet but wants negotiations to start promptly.
-With The Daily Star input
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]]>UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon and South African President Jacob Zuma are trying hard to get a decision that will keep the Kyoto Protocol on virtual life support until all countries find a way of sorting out a new legally binding mechanism in which all countries will be participants.
Negotiators think that the lowest possible outcome of the Durban climate conference could be that the EU will ‘pledge’ to cut their emission but will not enter the second commitment through an agreement. Meanwhile, other countries which are not in the Kyoto protocol will discuss and find a way to enter it at a later date.
A harder proposition is that the countries which signed the protocol to cut emission will not ratify the second commitment but will agree to enter it provided the other big polluters commit themselves to cutting their emissions too.
But this looks difficult to achieve because the US is in a mood to talk out the conference without any commitment.
“As the situation evolves now, it seems that Kyoto will be left on life support,” said Dr Saleemul Haque, senior research fellow of the International Institute for Environment and Development.
There is also talk about reviewing the achievements of the Kyoto Protocol in 2015. The BASIC group comprising Brazil, South Africa, India and China — countries which are under tremendous pressure to legally bind their emissions, have taken a position that it should be reviewed as to how far the countries which had agreed in Kyoto to cut emissions had kept their commitment. BASIC has demanded this as a pressure tactic as evidence is clear that the Kyoto countries did not cut their emission as promised.
In such a situation, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has noted that if the current rate of carbon emission continues, global temperature will rise by up to 3 degree Celsius from the pre-industrial period by the end of this century. But the last climate conference in Cancun had targeted keeping it at 2 degrees although the Least Developed Countries (LDCs) had demanded a cap of 1.5 degree Celsius.
“It was agreed at the Kyoto conference that greenhouse gas emission would be reduced by 5 percent from the 1990 level. Instead, it has risen by 17 percent, making the situation even more precarious and reaching almost a tipping point,” said Dr Atiq Rahman, executive director of Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies (BCAS).
Meanwhile, the LDCs have called on the developed countries to reduce their greenhouse gas emission by at least 45 percent below 1990 levels by 2020 and at least 95 percent below 1990 levels by 2050.
-With The Daily Star input
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]]>The window was proposed at the last climate conference at Cancun and its modalities were approved yesterday.
Bangladesh and Canada are the co-chairs of this new window, which will provide ways for countries to assess their loss and damage from climate change.
Once they can quantify their damage, the countries will then be able to demand funds from the window.
So, when a cyclone will hit Bangladesh, it will follow the modalities to assess the damage and then claim funds.
The new window will go into operation at the next climate conference at Doha next year.
Meantime, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) yesterday at a press conference said not all hopes are lost for the Kyoto Protocol and funds.
Christiana Figueres, executive secretary of the UNFCC that hosts the conference, said a ray of hope can be seen at least on two issues — Kyoto protocol second commitment period and an adaptation fund.
She said many countries have agreed to commit to the second commitment and hoped that a compromise agreement will take place.
Kyoto protocol, the only legally binding emission agreement that was signed in 1997 is to expire in 2012 and efforts are afoot to give it a new lifeline by asking countries to assign it for a second term.
But complexities have arisen as US is not interested to sign it and neither is India.
-With The Daily Star input
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]]>Durban burned with sweltering heat yesterday and the UN’s weather agency World Meteorological Organisation’s just-released report that 2011 is the 10th hottest year since records began in 1850 had probably something to do with a new-found formula to save the Kyoto Protocol.
The compromise formula to give a fresh lifeline to Kyoto Protocol that ends next year suggested that the countries which had signed the legal binding on emission should continue their commitment for a second phase. In return, the USA which did not sign the protocol should commit to cut carbon emission earlier than 2020.
However, politics has once again complicated the new formula as the US is firm on its stance that it would not talk anything about emission cut before 2020. And India, the fourth biggest carbon emitter, has outright rejected any commitment.
But a silver line appeared with China saying it is ready to cap its emission. Chinese press has also slated Canada’s decision to leave the protocol.
With such undercurrents flowing high, the climate conference at Durban looks set to pick up more heat in the coming days. The worrying prospect is that if countries fail to commit to the second phase of the Kyoto Protocol, the funding to the poor and developing countries through the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) would be dead as well.
Last year about $1.2 billion had flown to the developing and poor countries in CDM. The CDM allows emission-reduction projects in developing countries to earn certified emission reduction (CER) credits. These credits can be traded and sold, and used by industrialised countries to a meet a part of their emission reduction targets under the Kyoto Protocol.
A new tension is also folding regarding the CDM between the poor countries and the developing countries like India, Brazil and China. The major part of the CDM fund has flown to India and China because of their solar and wind power projects. The LDCs now want that CDM should be specifically focused on the poor countries and not the developing countries.
Meantime, as the debates continue, Rajendra Kumar Pachauri, chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), yesterday said scientific evidence is clear about weather extremities because of climate change. He also said different parts of the world are witnessing different outcomes and the problems of the flood deltas (Bangladesh is one of them) are witnessing heightened crises.
He mentioned the latest IPCC special report on risks from extreme events as evidence of his claims.
The report has said since 1950 extreme weather conditions are witnessed and heavy rainfall will increase in the 21st century. Frequency of warm and cold spells will also increase and it is likely that the average maximum wind speed of tropical cyclones like typhoons and hurricanes will increase throughout the coming century.
Droughts will intensify over the coming century in southern Europe and the Mediterranean region, central Europe, central North America, Central America and Mexico, northeast Brazil, and southern Africa.
At the same time it is very likely that average sea level rise will contribute to upward trends in extreme sea levels in extreme coastal high water levels.
So when such signs and warnings are visible, Pachauri said time is ticking by to fight such a grim future.
His warning coincides with the UN’s weather agency World Meteorological Organisation’s report that 2011 was tied as the 10th hottest year since records began in 1850. Arctic sea ice, a barometer for the entire planet, had shrunk to a record low volume.
-With The Daily Star input
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As the stories emerging from Africa to Americas, Asia to Australia tell the same grave situation of ever increasing drought, floods, storms and hot spells, a Climate Change Conference began here yesterday with hopes that the rich nations will keep their commitments to extend helps to the poor and that they would themselves pledge to reduce carbon emission.As negotiations will roll on for the next two weeks, the key focus will be on breathing a new life to Kyoto Protocol, the only legally binding treaty to cut greenhouse gas, through agreeing to a second commitment period after 2012. The first commitment period mainly agreed by the European Union will expire next year.
The fate of Kyoto Protocol now mainly depends on whether the United States agrees to cut its emission. If the US does not agree, the whole thing is likely to fall through as other rich countries including the EU might step back. EU that contributes barely 11 percent of the greenhouse gas said it might renew its commitment for a second time. But that remains a big ‘might’.
The desperation to keep Kyoto alive was also reflected in the opening speech of South African President Jacob Zuma who opened the conference, also known as Conference of Parties (COP), at the International Conference Centre, Durban.
“You have before you the responsibility to re-affirm the multilateral rules-based system anchored by the Kyoto Protocol and to provide the funding needed to address impacts of climate change through activating the Green Climate Fund,” Zuma said.
“The expectation is that you must work towards an outcome that is balanced, fair and credible,” he stated.
The South African president also outlined how severe drought in Somalia is displacing people to Kenya — how scarce grazing land is leading to conflicts in Sudan and how hurricanes are pummeling coasts in the US.
“This meeting is taking place because climate change poses serious risks for humanity, especially in the developing world,” he said. “Climate change can no longer be treated as just an environmental challenge. It is a holistic, sustainable development challenge.”
But a sense of uncertainty prevails among the participants of the conference as nobody knows what will happen after the $30 billion Fast Track Fund timeline ends next year. The issue here is whether the developed world keep on funding the poor nations after 2012.
“We will also sit on the formation of the adaptation committee and technology transfer fund,” said Saleemul Huq, senior fellow of International Institute for Environment and Development. “We have to fix national adaptation plan modalities and look for funds from the rich nations. The rich have agreed to provide adaptation and technology transfer funds. But it is not clear how much they will contribute.”
Although there is a common sense of understanding that the rich nations will contribute their $100 billion to the Global Climate Fund from 2020, an agreement has yet to emerge on the structure of the fund. The transitional committee that was tasked with preparing the structure could only come up with a draft.
Meantime, smaller nations are declaring their own initiatives to cut greenhouse gas probably as a tactic to shame the rich nations.
“The good news coming into negotiations is a “growing momentum for action,” Christiana Figueres, executive secretary of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), said at a press conference on Sunday, pointing to recent actions in nearly 20 countries to reduce carbon pollution.
And the South African president yesterday made it clear that his country is progressing towards reduction of emission by 34 percent in 2020 and by 42 percent in 2025.
“But such efforts are not enough to cap the rising temperature to 1.5 degree Celsius of pre-industrial era,” said Saleem. “We need solid commitment from the rich to reach that level. Or else, many countries will go under water.”
Courtesy of The Daily Star
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]]>Bangladesh 5th most vulnerable country
Bangladesh among 28 developing countries ranked fifth most vulnerable to climate change and hunger, said a new report. The Action Aid research report styled ‘On the Brink: Who’s Best Prepared for a Climate Change and Hunger Crisis?” reveals that Bangladesh is more vulnerable than its neighbours India, Pakistan and Nepal, who ranked 7, 14 and 16 respectively.
Published yesterday, the report also said that Bangladesh is better prepared to face the challenges than its neighbours along with China and South Africa, ranking eighth in the list of most prepared countries due to the measures already in place.
The international NGO, working on poverty and injustice, however, warned that the era of cheap food was near its end due to the triple crisis climate change, depleted natural resources and sky-rocketing food prices, while Bangladesh, among other countries, may not be prepared to face the consequences.
The report said that Bangladesh is facing severe water-related challenges due to climate change scarcity of fresh water, salinity, increased flood and erosion, frequent and prolonged drought, while its early warning system for floods, cyclones and storm is considered state-of-the-art.
Recognising the adaptation plans taken by the government, the report said, “This is unlikely to prove sufficient to deal with the looming climate crisis and the dire predictions this will have in Bangladesh.”
Republic of the Congo, Burundi, South Africa and Haiti are ahead of Bangladesh in the ‘vulnerable list’ while Brazil, Malawi, Rwanda, Ethiopia and Tanzania are the top five countries least prepared to tackle the challenges.
In the Global Assessment Report of the UNDP, revealed earlier this year, Bangladesh was found to be one of the most vulnerable countries in the world.
Moreover, in the World Risk Index 2011, jointly conducted by United Nations University (UNU), Germany and the Institute of Environment and Human Security, published in September, Bangladesh ranked sixth among countries that are most vulnerable to natural disasters including typhoons, earthquake and tsunamis, while second among the Asian countries.
The NGO found that though the number of undernourished people in Bangladesh dropped to 27 percent as of January 2011, prices of rice and wheat increased by 42 percent (April) than the previous year.
“With nearly half of 135 million people already living below the poverty line, higher food prices will have a severe impact on poor people’s ability to buy enough food,” the ActionAid report added.
It suggests that Bangladesh would need to produce another 30 million tonnes of rice each year to become self-sufficient in food production, though “this could be difficult as the country is losing more than 80,000 hectares, which equals around one percent of arable land, to climate change or urbanisation every year”.
The international NGO fears that climate change would add half a billion people to those facing chronic hunger around the world by 2050, the alarming high food price is set to push 44 million more people into poverty while the poorest people would lose more arable lands as a result of unsustainable farming practices and an unprecedented rush by investors to control resources like oil, minerals, biofuel and water.
-With The Daily Star input
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