Rice prices are likely to pick up this year as traditional buyers return to the market to buy more rice and as an El Niño weather phenomenon expected later this year may reduce rice production in Asia, especially India, according to a biannual global food report published this month by FAO. According to the FAO, global milled rice production is expected to reach at about 501.1 million tonnes in 2014-15, up about 1 per cent from an estimation of about 496.9 million tonnes of rice produced in 2013-14. Rice growth subdued this year due to expectation of El Niño recurrence in mid-2014, reports oryza.com web site on Thursday.
In Asia, which is the global rice hub, El Niño is normally associated with drought, which will impact the rice yield, FAO said.
Rice production in Asia is expected to reach at about 453.2 million tonnes in 2014-15, up about only 0.5 per cent from last year, due to expectation of adverse weather and less attractive price.
Rice production is expected to increase in China to about 141.4 million tonnes, up about 0.6 per cent from last year.
Rice production in India is expected to reach at about 107 million tonnes, up about 1 per cent from last year. However, the final outcome of the season will depend on the pattern of monsoon rains, which normally reach the country on 1 June, when planting of the first paddy crop starts. In 2009, the last year of a strong El Niño event, rice production in India dropped 10 per cent.
Meanwhile, rice production in Indonesia, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Myanmar, Philippines, Pakistan and Cambodia is also expected to rise in 2014-15 while rice production is expected to decline in Sri Lanka, Japan, Laos and Thailand.
Overall rice production forecast for Africa is positive, with FAO expects 3 per cent growth to 18.4 million tonnes in 2014, from last year.
Rice production is expected to rise by about 3 per cent in EU from last year while rice production in the Russian Federation is also expected to increase.
In Latin America and the Caribbean, rice production is expected to rise by about 3 per cent to 19.5 million tonnes in 2014-15, from last year. Much of the growth is expected in Brazil rice production, up about 8 per cent from last year, according to FAO.
In Central America, where the 2014 season is just starting, rice production should benefit from support from government. In North America, rice production is expected to rise by about 12 per cent from last year.
Meanwhile, rice production in Australia is expected to decline by about 22 per cent from last year, due to severe drought conditions and excessively cool temperatures in the main producing state of New South Wales.
Global rice trade in 2014-15 is expected to reach at about 39.2 million tonnes, down about 0.2 per cent from an estimated 39.3 million tonnes in 2013-14.
Rice import in some Asian countries, such as Bangladesh, China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Nepal, the Philippines and Sri Lanka, are expected to rise while rice import by Iran is expected to decline in 2014-15.
Rice imports by African countries are currently anticipated to edge higher.
Imports by countries in Latin America and the Caribbean may also rise.
On supply side, Thailand is expected to capture much of the expansion in world import demand, according to the FAO. Thailand is expected to export of about 8.7 million tonnes of rice in 2014-15, up about 31 per cent from about 6.6 million tonnes exported in 2013-14. Rice export in Vietnam and Pakistan is also expected to rise in 2014-15.
Meanwhile, India’s rice export is expected to decline by about 7 per cent to about 9.8 million tonnes in 2014-15, from about 10.5 million tonnes expected to export in last year.
According the FAO, global rice stock is expected to rise for the ninth consecutive year, to reach at about 180.9 million tonnes in 2013-14, but ending rice stock is expected to decline in 2014-15 by about 0.4 per cent to 180.1 million tonnes from last year.
-With New Age input
