The World Bank on Wednesday reaffirmed Bangladesh’s GDP growth projection at 5.4 per cent for the financial year 2013-14 despite the government’s claim of achieving 6.12 per cent growth. The WB in its flagship report, World Economic Prospect, released on the day said that unrest and disruption centring the January 5 elections caused the lower growth beside capacity shortage.
The WB’s 5.4 per cent growth projection for the FY 2013-2014 is the lowest among the estimates made by the government, Bangladesh Bank and other international lenders for the 2013-14 financial year.
The government set a target to achieve a GDP growth of 7.3 per cent in the outgoing fiscal year but failed to achieve the target as the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics in its provisional report estimated the growth at 6.12 per cent.
Economists and experts, however, questioned the BBS estimate saying that as other economic indicators slumped in the current financial year, the hope for a trend-breaking rise was not realistic.
They said that the GDP had been on a declining trend for the past three years and amid an intense political unrest and hostile business condition in the current financial year, it could hardly gain more.
International lenders such as the Asian Development Bank also projected growth at about 5.4–5.6 per cent because of the economy being sluggish, especially for political unrest in the first half of the financial year.
‘Growth in Bangladesh averaged 6.3 per cent during 2010-2013, but slowed to an estimated 5.4 per cent during the fiscal year ending in June 2014, adversely affected by social unrest and disruptions prior to the national elections in January, and by capacity constraints that have resulted in persistent inflationary pressures,’ said WB latest release.
It also said that the export growth also slowed in Q1 of 2014 and inflow of remittance also declined.
‘Restrictions imposed by countries in the Gulf on the intake of Bangladesh migrants have resulted in reduced remittances,’ said the report.
The GDP growth hit a four-year low in the past 2012–13 financial year at 6.03 per cent against a target of 7.2 per cent.
In the FY 2011–12, the government targeted a 7.0-per cent growth while it finally achieved 6.23 per cent and in the FY 2010–11, it achieved a 6.71-per cent growth against a 6.8-per cent target.
-With New Age input
