Low rain threatens food security

Low monsoon rain and India’s food export ban could put Bangladesh’s food security at stake and require the government to give more incentives to farmers and watch global food price trend cautiously, warn local and global forecasters.
The government, however, sees no immediate danger from the New Delhi’s move, claiming that it has sufficient food in stock.
Despite lower rice price following a bumper Boro harvest, Bangladesh still remains vulnerable to food insecurity due to calamity and also international price shocks, says the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation.
‘Summer crop season [in Bangladesh] has already started but prospects are uncertain,’ it said in the latest Crop Prospects and Food Situation report, endorsing local experts’ concerns about a negative impact of the unusual drought on the country’s aman rice output.
Mahbub Hossain, an economist having specialisation on food security issues, said, ‘If it does not rain heavily in the next one month, the consequence would be devastating for the rice production.’
He further cautioned that the cultivation of Boro rice in the next season might come down significantly, periling the national food security unless the prices of rice and paddy increase to provide incentives to farmers.
In the global body’s ranking of 30 countries that require external assistance, Bangladesh is faced with ‘severe localised food insecurity’ due to calamity and needs imports and food aid amounting to more than 3 million tonnes this year although the country does not belong to the category of ‘very high’ domestic price.
Against this backdrop came the news of the Indian government’s move on Friday to impose a fresh ban on exports of rice, as low rain raised fears of declines in farm production.
‘Since India is a big player, its decision to ban rice exports has implications for us. It becomes costly to import food from elsewhere if we are to import, and India’s decision may signal a price spiralling in the international market,’ said Zaid Bakht, research director of Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies.
Asked about policy options, the economist explained that the government would have to offer various incentives to farmers to grow foods in the current and coming seasons and also keep close watch on the international market for importing necessary grains timely and efficiently.
‘Apart from maintaining a healthy stock, the government should act on the diplomatic front to strike deals with India for importing food-grains, if necessary. We must be assured of availability of foods,’ added Bakht.
The food minister and officials, however, downplayed the concerns arguing that Bangladesh had not imported food from India in recent time.
‘We will not face any problem at least in the next three months. We will maintain caution about earlier proposals to export surplus rice, given the prospect of Aman cultivation,’ the food and disaster management minister, Mohammad Abdur Razzak, told New Age on Saturday.
The government has at present a stock of 10.5 lakh tonnes of food-grains, mostly rice, in official silos and contract of receiving another 2.3 lakh tonnes of rice under the procurement drives, said Pius Costa, director general of the department of food.
‘Bangladesh has not been importing rice on commercial basis since early 2008. And we also have enough stocks at home for the coming months,’ he said when his attention was drawn to the Indian decision.
‘If the prices of rice increase slightly under the impact of the Indian decision, it would rather be a blessing for both farmers and consumers,’ said Mahbub Hossain, adding that the country has still scopes to overcome the challenges of food security in the coming months.
The food security of more than 4 million people is said to have already been affected by the devastating cyclone Aila that hit southern region on May 25, according to the FAO report.
Cautioning that high prices might affect poor people in rural and urban areas, it said domestic food prices in developing countries remain high despite a sharp decline in international prices and overall good cereal harvests. In several countries, if not in Bangladesh, prices exceed the already high levels of a year ago or are still at record levels, creating hardship for millions of people.
‘This situation continues to give rise to concern for the food security of low income vulnerable populations who spend a large share of their incomes on food,’ observed the Rome-based UN body.
It forecast 49.5 million tonnes of food-grain production for Bangladesh in 2009, as against 49.3 million tonnes of output in 2008 and 44.6 million tonnes in 2007. Worldwide, the cereal production is projected to reduce by 3.4 per cent in 2009.

Courtesy of NewAgebd