Mirza Aziz terms it unrealistic, eyewash ahead of polls
The government will face a huge challenge to implement the proposed mammoth annual development programme of Tk 73,968 crore in the next fiscal year because of the ongoing political crisis that has already affected revenue collection, said economists on Monday.
The extended meeting of the Planning Commission on Sunday proposed Tk 73,968 crore ADP for the new 2013-14 fiscal year for placing before National Economic Council meeting to be chaired by the prime minister on May 26.
The proposed ADP for the first time included the budget of the autonomous bodies that will fund their own projects.
If the Tk 8,098 crore budget of the autonomous bodies is not considered, the ADP size would be increased by 20 per cent in the next fiscal year to Tk 65,870 crore from the original ADP of Tk 55,000 crore in the current fiscal year.
Out of the total Tk 73,968 crore ADP, the government would provide Tk 41,307 crore from the public exchequer while Tk 24,563 crore is expected to come as project assistance from the development partners and autonomous organisations would inject Tk 8,098 crore.
‘If approved, it would be an unrealistic ADP considering the present condition of economy,’ former caretaker government adviser Mirza Azizul Islam told New Age.
‘It would be unrealistic in the sense that the present government will get half of the present fiscal year and the upcoming government will get another half of the next fiscal year to implement the proposed ADP for the 2013-14,’ he said.
‘But the question is how this largest ADP to be financed as there is no good sign of increasing inflow of foreign assistance to the country,’ Mirza said.
‘So, the government has to depend on revenue generation to implement the ADP.’
‘I do not think the government will be able to implement the proposed ADP as this is a year of political unrest and the national elections are approaching. So, the revenue generation may be hampered. As a result, the government has to cut the ADP by a large portion or they have to increase the domestic borrowing from the banking system depriving the private sector,’ he said.
‘I think the largest ADP taken by the government ahead of the national polls is just an eyewash and to show public that they have taken a big development programme for the country. Also I do not see any justification in including the project financing of the government’s autonomous bodies in the ADP,’ Mirza added.
Mostafizur Rahman, executive director of the Centre for Policy Dialogue, said, ‘There is no doubt it is a big proposal for new ADP and it would be challenging to impellent in the current political situation.’
‘However, there are some justifications to keep the ADP large,’ he said.
‘I think the government is going to provide a largest ADP due to significant allocation for the Padma Bridge project with the government’s own funds and the project financing of the government’s autonomous bodies were added to the ADP for the first time in the history,’ Mustafizur said.
He also mentioned the implementation progress of the ADP in current year was better in comparison with that in the last few years. ‘So, the government is going to increase its development plan in the new fiscal year.’
Mostafizur also said that there was about $15 billion in assistance in the pipeline from the development partners. The government has to put additional efforts to utilise the assistance. ‘Otherwise it would be a challenging ADP for the government in the new fiscal year.’
Ahsan H Mansur, executive director of the Policy Research Initiative said, ‘It seems the government is going to take a large ADP proposed by Planning Commission. But, in a sense it is not that large if we take into account allocation for Padma Bridge project.’
He said that the ADP size of Tk 65,870 crore, excluding the project financing of Tk 8,098 crore for the government’s autonomous bodies, would go down to Tk 60,870 crore if Tk 5,000 crore kept for the bridge project was deducted.
‘The size is justified considering the original allocation of Tk 55,000 crore for the current fiscal year.’
-With New Age input
