The hopes and aspirations as reflected in the budget of the upcoming year must be assessed in the light of the prevailing hard economic and political realities of Bangladesh. The global economic environment is also pertinent in this context. Like any other annual budget of the country, the proposed one also portrays a rosy picture of our economy compared to the last year. The current proposed budget is an expansionary one by sixteen percent. This does not seem to be a big annual jump. The two commonly worried indicators like growth rate and inflation rate do not seem to be realistic. Given the past experience the projected growth rate seems to be ambitious. It appears that the inflation rate would be close to two digit level. Given our contractionary momentary policy, the recent past experience shows that inflation rate has been more than seven percent. The proposed budget is an expansionary one in its mode of operation. It is highly likely that it will accelerate the current inflationary process. This being the last budget of the current regime it has kept its political consideration in mind. The best examples are expenditures on communication and MPO activities. These are areas of huge leakages not improving the life of the ordinary people. The anticipated/projected growth rate will have only marginal effects on the living conditions of the vast majority of the people living in the countryside. The budget document is an annual financial/fiscal/economic/ tool of the government. The proposed upcoming budget in merely an exercise in ‘statistics’. It is also a highly politically motivated exercise.
At the end of the day like any other accounting exercise it clearly shows its own balance. For ordinary people there is very little scope to make any meaning out of it. It has great implications for the urban people in particular the middle class. The vast majority of the people living in the remote countryside has only negligible /marginal implication. The government has rather cleverly prepared a political document keeping in view the urban middle class. Tax will be increased and it will be collected from those who are law abiding citizens of the country. It will affect me. But those involved in misappropriating and plundering public resources do remain outside the tax net of the government as it is another traditional budget. The government is entirely toothless regarding major /hysterical plundering like Hall Mark and Share Market scam.
The present budget in no way a bold step to protect public interest. It is well –known that in the recent past has been shacked. The very foundation of our banking and financial sector. The budget is merely a political poem. The physical implementation of the proposed figures as mentioned in the budget is far from the truth. The greatest challenge for our society is to build up any institutional /social structure through which the political poem can be made a reality in our life.
The Writer is Professor Department of Economics University of Dhaka
-With The Independent input
