Saturday, March 15, 2025

Non-inclusive polls could deepen crisis

Us Congressional Hearing On Bangladesh
Non-inclusive polls could deepen crisis
A US congressional hearing on Thursday expressed concern at the ongoing political stalemate in Bangladesh and feared escalation of violence in case a non-inclusive election took place.
The subcommittee on Asia and Pacific of the house committee on foreign affairs of the US Congress made the observation after witnesses testified before it.
The witnesses held the ruling coalition in Bangladesh responsible for causing the political impasse by dropping the provision for an election-time caretaker government through the 15th amendment to the constitution.
Woodrow Wilson Center public policy scholar Ali Riaz, Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Security Studies president retired major
general AMN Muniruzzaman and Human Rights Watch Asia advocacy director John Sifton testified before the committee.
The subcommittee observed that political tensions in Bangladesh and attacks on minorities was growing as two major political parties remained stubborn in their respective positions over the modality of holding the next general elections. It feared that further instability might lead to spread of extremism threatening regional security.
The chairman of the subcommittee, Steve Chabot, at the hearing on ‘Bangladesh in Turmoil: A Nation on the Brink’ said the growing escalation of violence might cause rise of extremism in Bangladesh which would have a negative impact on regional security.
Chabot said the country was in political turmoil and it was uncertain whether the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party would contest the polls.
Ali Riaz said he saw little chances of an inclusive election to take place at this point unless something dramatic happened. ‘I wish I am wrong. But, as of today that is what it looks like,’ he said.
He said two options – either accommodating some of the opposition’s demands, including a cabinet not headed by the incumbent prime minister or deferral of the election – could avoid further deterioration of the situation but to him the most likely scenario was that Bangladesh was going to experience a ‘non-inclusive’ election.
On the opposition leader’s meeting with the president, Ali Riaz said the president had very limited constitutional powers and it was not clear in the constitution how far he could intervene in such situation. But, he said he had no doubt that the president had some ‘moral power’.
He said the international community should neither franchise its responsibilities to regional powers, nor should the regional powers be excluded from this international effort. ‘In particular, India’s valid security concerns must be addressed. Institutional structures should be created to ensure that domestic political environment in Bangladesh does not threaten its neighbour or the regional security.’
Muniruzzman, in response to the committee chairman’s question, said if a non-inclusive election took place the severity of post-election violence would be much higher than pre-election violence.
He said that after formation of the ‘so called’ interim government, it became clear that the prime minister Sheikh Hasina did not care about what sort of accommodation was needed to solve the problem. He said if the prime minister failed to hold a non-inclusive election, she might declare a state of emergency and rule the country for more one and a half years before going for elections. To him the third possibility was the military might ‘reluctantly take over’ should the scale of violence peak.
Muniruzzman said if the military was asked to act against any popular uprising by the incumbent government, it might give rise to a heightened public expectation for rescue from the crisis by the military, which could ‘evoke a coup’, he said.
‘In either case, there is likely to be a military-backed interim civilian government to hold fair election and transfer power to the elected one. Any prolonged stay of such a government beyond 6 to 8 months would be harmful,’ he added.
Muniruzzman said a destabilised Muslim majority nation was a breeding ground of fundamentalism, militancy and even terrorism. ‘In a worst case scenario, some spillover effects cannot be ruled out to neighbouring provinces of bordering nations,’ he said.
John Sifton said, ‘At some point the prime minister will have to come to terms with the reality that if [the Awami League] forces through a one- party government, it will only lead to open ended protest which will put at stake everything that Bangladesh wants and needs right now.’
‘She may not realise it today but she eventually will have to realise,’ he said.
He said, ‘Current political instability is likely to make matters worse. If the best predictor of future behaviour is past behaviour, Bangladeshi security forces’ record is serious cause for concern. The ruling Awami League knows the record itself quite well: when it was in opposition, their members suffered the same abuse, and Human Rights Watch was there to document it.’
Bangladesh security forces have a long track record of using excessive force against protesters, even targeting them intentionally –as well as arresting and abusing detainees, he said. ‘To put in simple terms, they shoot people, sometimes intentionally, and often with extreme recklessness,’ he said adding that security forces frequently used excessive force in responding to street protests and by HRW estimate almost 150 protesters had been killed and at least 2,000 injured since February 2013.
He also said the International Crimes Tribunal was marred by ‘serious deficiencies’ which had undermined the integrity of its process and the soundness of the tribunal’s judgments – which included, in eight cases, the death penalty. ‘The tribunal too will suffer as its decisions are increasingly seen as politicised, and cynicism dulls good faith efforts to fix its deficiencies,’ he said.
Congressmen Ed Royce and Dough Collins and Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard were also in the hearing held at House Rayburn Office in the Washington DC.

-With New Age input

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